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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."